🔗 Share this article An Forecasting Platform User Earned $436,000 on Bets Predicting Venezuela's Political Shift. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader profited close to $500,000 by predicting the removal of the Venezuelan leader shortly prior to it was made public, raising questions about whether someone profited from inside knowledge of the event. Changing Odds in Wagers Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the close of the month increased in the period preceding Donald Trump stated on Saturday that the president had been taken into custody. A single trader, which joined the platform last month and made four bets, all on the Venezuelan situation, profited a total of $436K from a modest bet of $32.5K. Who placed the bet is a mystery. The anonymous account had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Probability Spikes Before Announcement Market statistics shows that users put the odds of Maduro's exit at just 6.5% in the afternoon of the prior Friday. However the market's assessment had jumped to eleven percent by shortly before midnight and spiked dramatically in the early hours of the next day, pointing to a sharp shift in market sentiment just before the public announcement was made. "That trade has all the hallmarks of a trade based on inside information," stated a financial reform advocate. A small number of other traders also profited tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A new rule presented on recently aims to prohibit public officials from making trades on forecasting platforms if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a market. Market Background Prediction markets have surged in popularity in the past few years, with participants able to predict everything from sports to politics. Prediction markets encountered regulatory challenges under the last presidential term. However it has received a warmer welcome during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is illegal in the securities markets, but there are more ambiguous rules in the event betting arena. An official representative for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits such activities of any form."