From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another state and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to shatter them.

Set aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the promise of energy wealth as well as personal bravado, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, with the question of which nation is next looming.

David Mitchell
David Mitchell

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