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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the ideal ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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